Friday, October 23, 2009

For some tech companies, 1999 days are coming back!

Despite of today's real estate numbers, tech stocks surged through out the day. Particularly Amazon cherished the market and it's shares jumped to $114.25 blasting past its all-time high of $113 set a decade ago by beating analysts estimates both in terms of revenue and profit. Also Microsoft this morning beat revenue estimates for the quarter ended in September. The company also crushed profit estimates. The Microsoft stock price surged today after a long time. The out look is flourish as Windows 7 the new operating system from Microsoft got amazing reviews. On top of that Microsoft is opening up retail stores as a direct answer to Apple stores. Yesterday, Microsoft unveiled Windows 7 in Newyork and opened a first retail store here in the valley. May be I will visit Microsoft retail shop in Scottsdale fashion center over the weekend to write the review on it in O'Reilly blog. Actually I planned to take my daughter to the opening ceremony yesterday as Highschool Musical star Ashley Tisdale performed for the grand opening, but caught up with some thing else.

Same with Google, Intel and Yahoo etc third quarter results. Most of the tech companies reported strong revenues(compared to last year) and the outlooks are promising. For Amazon it's even better than pre-dotcom bubble.

Next thing that will follow strong revenues are going to be the jobs. Slowly these companies invest in new technologies, thus creates the new jobs. Google already announced that it's on hiring spree. The good news is, tech jobs are going to be better in near feature.

Does it indicate we are on the recovery path? Can't say yet. On the other hand all the sectors besides tech companies need to shine in order to keep the employment rate low. Still finance sector is not stabilized and the housing market keeps declining in terms of the median price. Though the sales are rising(first time home buyer credit could be the reason), the median price keeps dropping. According to the September data, sales of existing homes rose almost 8 percent over September a year ago, but the median sales price was $174,900, an almost 9 percent decline from $191,200 a year ago. This needs to be stabilized for the recovery.

Overall stock market is doing relatively well compared to the last year end roller coaster ride. From 7000 points it is recovered and now the pendulum is swinging around 10,000 points. If you notice the jump from 7000 to 10,000, it was not rapid, it took time and slowly recovered - which is a good sign of stabilization. This is true here in US, but Indian stock market went back to 17,000 points and it was so rapid. Some analysts say the jump is going to fall back!

At least market is showing some positive signs and the next month holiday sales decide whether people have confidence about the economy or not? Based on the Amazon outlook for the holiday season, it's going to be lot better. If it is true, chain reaction will start from consumer spending to sales to profits to new jobs to stabilized home prices to recovery. Since the recession, the consumer confidence level keeps falling, but I feel this holiday season is going to stop it, if not taking the U direction. Last year around this time I advised about saving, but this year you can ease your savings a bit. Be ready to be in the lines on the day after thanksgiving day, but cautious on spending.

Bottom line - be positive, the good days are down the highway 2010 :-) Happy weekend!

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